Thai people always call politics as “Num Nao” or “Polluted Water” because it is very dirty and full of corruption. Whoever throws him/herself into this pool of polluted water will likely to come out disgraceful and dirty.

After the clash in 1992, to please Thai people who were still angry at them, all the politicians tried to revolutionize the Thai politics by amending the constitution. However, devils die hard. The politics went back to the vicious cycle. Politicians tried to make every penny out of every project. To get rid of corruption was just a lip-service; no politicians intended to do it. The ugliness of corruptions did not stop just in the government; it spread to the private sector and the consequence of the corruptions would become very ugly afterwards.

The speculation of the real estate dramatically drove up the fake demand of housing. Anyone who owned the land at that time developed their land to be the housing project. The greedy financial institutions saw the handsome rewards, they loaned the money out like no tomorrow. Most of the money went to those bank owners’ friends and relatives. The easy money was loaned without doing any business feasibility study of those projects and the banks did not require any asset to back up those loans. Plus, a lot of people were getting rich fast as the stock market was rising. People spent more than they could earn. The import of luxurious items was skyrocketing.

The dream was being created on the bubble that was about to explode!

In 1996, the reality hit hard. Thailand was attacked by the hedge funds led by George Seros. The hedge funds are like predators, when they see the vulnerable prey, they attack fast and furious. After being attacked several time; Thai Fed raised a white flag and allowed the Thai Bath to float. The next day after the announcement, the Thai currency dived down more than 50%. The economy collapsed on the bubble and a lot of people instantly went bankrupt.

The fake demand of the real estate evaporated. No more buyers. A lot of projects that were being constructed were abandoned. Most of the loan they made to build those projects was in dollars, so when Thai Bath dived down 100% in value, most of those companies suddenly went bankrupt. When the real estate collapsed, the bank went belly up as well because they had to carry those Non-performing loan (NPL) from those real estate companies and pay back to their creditors in dollars. Many banks were bailed out by the government or sold to foreigners.

The crisis was called “Tum Yum Kung Crisis” or “Hot and Sour Soup Crisis”. The effect of this crisis went world wide from Thailand to every country in South East Asia, South Korea, Russia and Brazil.

During the turmoil in politics and economy in the last decade, Taksin Shinawat had emerged as a phenomenally successful business man. Like other new billionaires around the world, his fortune was generated by the rise of new technology. Within 20 years, his core business of telecommunication has made him a billionaire. His success was something to look up for everyone.

He is an ambitious man. He finally stepped into the politics. A lot of people applauded his decision because they expected him to be different from other politicians. People believed since he was already super rich, he would not corrupt; since he was so successful in creating his multi-billion dollars business in very short of time, he would be able to lead our country to better future; since he looked like he was in touch with ordinary people, he would understand what Thai people need.

He won his first PM job by a landslide. People had an extremely high hope on him. The first 4 years was not bad at all, he still won people’s heart. With his majority and style, he could push some projects that no one dared to touch it before like the controversial Medicare reform, the ban and harsh punishment on selling or buying LSD, the mega project of the new airport that took almost 20 years to finish it but he was able to push it within 5 years and loan money to every village in the rural area to jump start their local economy.

After he won the second term, his situation became deteriorating. He was perceived as the authoritarian. The media was suppressed. His opposition was totally shut off from any participation. He appointed his own friends and relatives to all government branches. People accused him of disrespect to the King and the corruption scandal was looming.

Enough is enough. Finally, when his unethical but legal tax evasion when he sold his business to Singaporean company was revealed by the media, his ethical transparency was questioned. People, in particular in Bangkok took it to the street. The country was so divisive like never before. Takin haters and lovers clashed to each other. While the middle class and elite were asking him to step down, people in the rural area were holding him up.

With his past phenomenal success, his majority in the Parliament, his control in every branch of government and the vast support from his rural constituents, they gave rise to his own arrogance and over-confidence. Finally they gave rise to his miscalculation.

He believed he was unbreakable, but the history would soon prove otherwise.

Nothing is unbreakable if you put enough pressure on it.

Tae Athikomvittaya